Ukraine’s president relies on foreign army strategists rather than his generals to create a winning plan for Ukraine’s military to defeat a superior enemy.
Zelensky has demonstrated limited leadership and strategic skills by relying too heavily on Western tactical support. He has overlooked a critical factor in that reliance: the US has never engaged in direct military conflict with Russia, even though they were involved in several proxy wars, including the Korean- and Vietnam Wars. Therefore, it does not have real-life experience and superior tactics to fight Russia.
Whether Zelenskyy has realized this or not, it shows in Ukraine’s campaigns. On the battlefield, the US relies heavily on superior air support, which Ukraine needs to improve. Intelligence gathering and real-time delivery to frontline troops have led to partial success stories. Still, they need to be backed up by intense and unlimited artillery bombardments, which Ukraine currently does not possess. Spending thousands of rounds per day is beyond what the West can provide, thus weakening Ukraine’s capability to cause extensive and permanent damage to enemy forces.
Capable leaders should not openly reveal their military tactics and progress on the battlefield. Although not everything is openly discussed on social media, Zelenskyy’s spring offensive has failed, leaving Ukrainian troops entrenched for another winter phase. Launching an attack over snow-covered fields and sideroads that have been heavily mined for vehicles and foot soldiers would be hazardous. Therefore, the only option is to dig in for another winter, making it second in its prolonged fight against the resilient occupier.
Conscripting delays and political powerplay
The upcoming winter months, coupled with the exhaustive fighting against a superior enemy with almost unlimited manpower and resources, have significantly lowered the morale of Ukraine’s troops. Moreover, their extended deployments have harmed their physical and mental health. To boost the morale and effectiveness of the forces on the frontlines, Ukraine’s military needs to promptly rotate fresh service men and women to the front. However, this may take time due to the ongoing transformation of Ukraine’s transcription service, which involves replacing corrupt officials and strengthening civil morality.
To make some improvements, in early 2023, The Ukrainian parliament approved a law that all physically fit Ukrainian men aged 18-60 are potentially subject to conscription. Furthermore, on May 30, the Verkhovna Rada supported a bill that reduced the maximum conscription age from 27 to 25 years, but the country’s president, Zelenskyy, hesitated to sign it. The bill was sent to the president to sign on 05.06.2023.
However, when drafting this article, Zelenskyy still awaits more comprehensive plans and reports on the military’s strategy for replacing the exhausted front-line troops. The army chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, stated in The Economist on November 1, 2023, that Ukraine’s military requires more manpower. The new law will close the loopholes in the conscription law that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities.
Criticism and the need for change
Although Ukraine is currently facing a cruel and devastating war with its neighbor, some prominent members of Ukraine’s power elite have begun to question President Zelenskyy’s ability to lead the country. One of these individuals is Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, who recently stated in an interview with the Swiss news website 20 Minutes that Zelenskyy bears responsibility for Ukraine’s near defeat when Russia launched its offensive in 2022. According to Klitschko, Zelenskyy ignored warning signs and failed to prepare Ukraine adequately for the attack.
In an interview, Klitschko mentioned that Zelensky seems to have become isolated intentionally or due to a hectic schedule. The Ukrainian president is distancing himself from his closest allies and sources of information. His military chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, recently stated that Ukraine’s counteroffensive had failed, resulting in a trench war. Winter is approaching, and there is uncertainty in troop rotation; the coming months will be tough.
Traumatized civilians and lucrative business opportunities
Due to the extensive use of mines and explosive traps, Ukraine has become one of the most mined countries in the world. Clearing all the mines and explosives in Ukraine will take years; unfortunately, not all can be removed. This means that the country’s landscape will remain dangerous for civilians, particularly farmers who must risk their lives to cultivate their lands amidst the minefields.
From the start of the war in 2022 until 30 June 2023, the fighting has claimed about 25,170 civilian casualties, and there seems to be no end in sight. Based on these grim statistics, a lucrative business opportunity has emerged in Ukraine – manufacturing prostheses for soldiers and civilians alike whom landmines have maimed and injured. According to the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine, there are about 50 businesses that manufacture prostheses, orthoses, and orthopedic shoes in Ukraine.
It will take decades to rebuild Ukraine. On March 23, 2023, The World Bank estimated that the cost of Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction would be more than US $411 billion (equivalent to €383 billion). This is significant and will continue to increase unless all parties agree to stop hostilities.
Corruption has been a persistent issue in Ukraine, even after its separation from Russia. Although there have been some improvements, the upcoming reconstruction and microfinancing projects may lead to a surge in corruption. Corruption remains a significant challenge despite the EU’s efforts to speed up the membership process and deliver over-optimistic reports on Ukraine’s progress.
The black-market economy will thrive in the coming years – there is no stopping it. Thus, the Western governments may try to set conditions for their financial help. Time will show whether Ukraine will rise from the ashes or stay Russia’s province.
